Intl. Intelligence

Politics & Policies: Ahmadinejad's antics

By CLAUDE SALHANI
UPI International Editor

WASHINGTON, Dec. 14 (UPI) -- Should the world take Iran's hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seriously? No, I mean seriously!

Consider his recent antics: First, Ahmadinejad declared to a group of students in Tehran in October that "Israel should be wiped off the map." Israel certainly takes him seriously.

If that first statement were not bad enough, and even before the dust from that storm he created had time to settle, the Iranian president suggested Israel be moved to Europe -- somewhere between Germany and Austria. Now the European Union is taking him seriously.

Then, while in Mecca last week, attending a meeting of heads of state of the Organization of Islamic Conference, Ahmadinejad takes advantage of the presence of the international media at an extraordinary summit called by Saudi King Abdullah, and does it again -- this time by saying he doubted the Holocaust ever took place. Now he has the Saudis furious.

So what exactly is the Iranian president trying to accomplish by stirring world public opinion against him? And this at a time when he should be trying to appease the world, showing them that Iran, even with nuclear weapons, can be a responsible nation.

"What Ahmadinejad is doing is making very calculated statements with a clear purpose in mind," said Alireza Jafarzadeh, president of Strategic Policy Consulting, and a former Washington spokesman for Iran's parliament in exile, the National Council of Resistance of Iran.

Jafarzadeh is the one who revealed to the world in August 2002 that the Iranians were building nuclear facilities in Natanz and Arak.

"Ahmadinejad is trying to rally the Revolutionary Guards and the most radical elements in the regime to be fully behind him and boost their morale," Jafarzadeh told United Press International.

At the same time, Ahmadinejad is also trying to reach out to the Muslim population in the Arab world, he believes. Hence the visit last week to Tehran by Hamas' leader Khalid Mashal.

"Ahmadinejad was placed at the head of the Islamic republic by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei with the aim to head toward a confrontation with the United States," said Jafarzadeh.

"I believe he was tasked with a mission when he was selected by Khamenei," claims Jafarzadeh. His mission is two pronged.

-- To get Iran its first nuclear weapon as quickly as possible and at whatever cost.

-- Establishing an Islamic republic in Iraq, or at least gaining a very significant influence over Iraqi affairs.

If Khamenei were not planning for a confrontation, he would not have chosen Ahmadinejad as president, he would have backed a less conservative candidate such Hashemi Rafsanjani.

"Ahmadinejad's mission is not to negotiate," says Jafarzadeh, "but to confront. That is what he is doing on the nuclear side, and that is what he is doing in the entire region."

While Jafarzadeh may see Ahmadinejad as someone with a clear-cut mission, some analysts question whether Ahmadinejad may be entirely in control of his emotions. Consider this following conversation, caught on videotape, Ahmadinejad had with a high-ranking ayatollah after his return from New York where he addressed the U.N. General Assembly in September:

"The last day when I was speaking before the (U.N. General) Assembly, one of our group told me when I started to say, 'In the name of God the Almighty, the Merciful,' he saw a light around me, and I was placed inside this aura and I felt it myself. I felt the atmosphere suddenly change, and for those 27 or 28 minutes the leaders of the world did not blink. When I say they did not bat an eyelid, I am not exaggerating because I was looking at them and they were wrapped," said Ahmadinejad.

Indeed, Ahmadinejad may feel that at times he projects an aura and captivates his audience. And because of his close relationship with the ayatollahs, he may believe he is closer to the divine than most. Still, that did not prevent him from not wanting to take a chance that his prayers may go unanswered, preferring to rely on dirty tricks to secure the elections in Iraq for his candidates.

Just a day before Iraq's elections, border policemen seized a tanker that was trying to cross from Iran filled with thousands of forged ballots, reported The New York Times on Wednesday.

The paper, quoting officials, said the tanker was seized in the evening by agents with the U.S.-trained border protection force at the Iraqi town of Badra, after crossing at Munthirya on the Iraqi border.

Iraqi police officials say the border police found several thousand partly completed ballots inside. When interrogated by the police, the driver admitted at least three more similar trucks also filled with fake ballots had crossed different border posts.

So should such a man be taken seriously? The Iraqis certainly are now.

Politics & Policies: Iran gearing for war?

WASHINGTON, Sept. 19 (UPI) -- Is Iran preparing for war with the United States? It sounds inconceivable, but the U.S. invasion of Iraq has spooked Tehran's mullahs to prepare for the unthinkable.

Writing in the Sept. 17 issue of the Arab News, Iranian columnist Amir Taheri states, "incredible though it may sound there are signs that Tehran may be preparing for a military confrontation with the United States, and has convinced itself that it could win."

This may explain, partially, why Iran's mullahs are emulating the Vietcong by going underground, at least so far as their nuclear program and missile construction structures are concerned.

Iranian opposition officials, citing intelligence reports received from sources inside Iran, claim the Islamic republic is building a vast network of tunnels and secret centers across the country, for the purpose of hiding its nuclear processing facilities and missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

The tunnels and underground endeavors have been codenamed "Development Projects." They are classified as "top secret" by Tehran. The Iranian government has forbidden the tunnels and centers be referred to by their names, designating instead each one by a specified code. The tunnels and processing sites have been placed under "very strict and tight security and intelligence system," maintained by the military, according to intelligence reports from Iranian opposition.

"Iran is increasingly moving its nuclear facilities to military sites," said Alireza Jafarzadeh, an Iranian dissident living in Washington. Backing-up his claims with a detailed blueprint of what appeared to be a plant of some sort, Jafarzadeh, explained in great detail, at a press conference last week, the perils of Iran going nuclear.

Other opposition groups are also decrying the dangers posed by a nuclear-armed Iran and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was in New York last week to address the United Nations General Assembly, was greeted to a tumultuous welcome by tens of thousands of protestors objecting to his visit and calling attention to Iran's pursuit of its nuclear program.

Iran's Gachin uranium ore mine is producing about 21 tons of ore annually, enough to manufacture about four nuclear bombs per year, according to a U.S. government report first made public by ABC News. "Seven of Iran's 13 nuclear-related facilities were kept secret until 2002, including enrichment plants at Lashkar-Abad, Tehran, Natanz, and uranium processing at Adrekan and Gachin," the report said.

Iran has been hiding its nuclear programs for the good part of 18 years, pointed out Paul Leventhal, president of the Nuclear Control Institute, and co-founder of the Iran Policy Committee, an ad-hoc group comprised for the most par of former U.S. government officials lobbying the Bush administration to empower Iranian resistance inside the country. The IPC sees as key player the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq, or MeK, a cult-like group accused of having Marxist-Islamist tendencies, if ever the twain could meet.

"When one also considers Iran's concealment and deception activities, it's difficult to escape the conclusion that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons," the U.S. government report went on to say.

"It is reaching the point which is beyond critical," warned Leventhal, urging the International Atomic Energy Agency -- the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog -- to "promptly investigate" Iran's nuclear infractions, adding that much "evidence" has been ignored by the IAEA.

Commenting on the "evidence that Tehran is building a nuclear bomb," a Tehran commentator on Sahar TV asked "why should we believe the United States now when it lied about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?"

The danger posed by a nuclear-armed Iran, as Patrick Clawson, deputy director for research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, explains, is that it would instigate a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Egypt, for example, would find it hard to allow Iran to remain the only country in the region (besides Israel) to go nuclear.

It would create "a snowball effect," says Clawson. "The world would not be better off if more countries were armed with nuclear weapons," said Clawson. "Iran talks of its rights without mentioning its obligations. Iran has a right if it cooperates with the IAEA," pointed out Clawson.

But Iran, so far, has refused to cooperate, playing a cat and mouse game with both the IAEA and the Euro-3 - Britain, France and Germany - who have been tying to negotiate a peaceful and adequate solution to Iran's nuclear quest.

Jafarzadeh, now president of Strategic Policy Consulting, but who represented the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq until the Iranian resistance group found its way on the U.S. terror list, warned of the "speed with which Iran is proceeding" with its nuclear program.

The election of Ahmadinejad to the presidency of the Islamic republic consolidated Iran's power base, bringing the army and the Revolutionary Guards under the mandate of the mullahs.

Taheri, the columnist, points out that "another sign that Tehran may be preparing for war is the appointment of military officers to posts normally held by civilians, such as governors, mayors and directors of major public corporations."

Following in the footsteps of the Vietcong and their wartime leader Ho Chi Minh, Iran's supreme guide, Ali Khamenei, is reported to be building a "bunker-like structure" close to his house in the city of Mashhad in the vicinity of the holy shrine of Reza, the eighth imam, reports Taheri. The bunker is reported to have the capacity to house the entire Iranian government.

Speaking to CNN during his New York visit President Ahmadinejad said Iran is absolutely determined to pursue a nuclear energy program and "will use every resource" it has to battle the United States and European nations trying to prevent it. Stay tuned.

--

Fri Aug 26, 2:09 PM

Iranian dissident fires Ukraine, Iran charges on Tehran's nuclear program

A prominent Iranian dissident claimed Tehran had mastered the design of nuclear capable cruise missiles secretly sold to the Islamic Republic by Ukraine and was on the verge of producing copies.

Alireza Jafarzadeh said the 12 weapons were now in the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, and also fired off new claims about the corps' past links with disgraced Pakistani nuclear scientist AQ Khan.

His charges, made at a press conference in Washington, coincided with a spike in tensions in the showdown between Europe, the United States and Tehran over the Islamic Republic's alleged quest for nuclear weapons.

Jafarzadeh neither identified his sources, on the grounds that to do so could expose them to reprisals by the Iranian government, nor provided documentary evidence.

The allegations could also not be independently confirmed.

Two of the Ukranian Kh-55 missiles were used by Iranian scientists in reverse engineering process that had allowed them to copy the design, Jafarzadeh said.

Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani told the country's Supreme National Security Council that "Iran has been successful in acquiring the technology for Kh-55 cruise missiles and Tehran is in the last stages of producing the missile," Jafarzadeh said.

Jafarzadeh did not provide dates for the meeting, but said the copied missile's 3,000 kilometres (1,800 miles) range would threaten European countries.

Ukranian President Viktor Yushchenko has admitted that missiles were shipped by the previous government in Kiev illegally to China and Iran.

Jafarzadeh also issued a new claim over alleged Pakistani complicity in Iran's nuclear program, identifying a senior member of the Revolutionary Guard whom he said met Khan as far back as 1986 and 1987.

Meetings between Khan and a Brigadier General identified as Mohammad Eslami, chief of the guard's research centre, disproved claims by Iran that Khan's reported links to its nuclear program were in a purely civilian context, he said.

"I ask the International Atomic Energy Agency to interview him (Eslami) as soon as possible," said Jafarzadeh.

Iran has defied the international community by resuming work on making reactor fuel that could also be used to make nuclear weapons but insists that it wants to continue talks on guaranteeing its atomic program is peaceful.

Jafarzadeh is president of Strategic Policy Consulting Inc. a US research firm, an analyst for the Fox News network. He was born in Iran before moving to the United States before the revolutioin in 1979.

He was formerly a spokesman for the National Council of Resistance of Iran, the political wing of the Mujahedeen-e Khalq (MEK), which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the US government and Europe.

The NCRI vehemently contests the label, which it says was imposed by governments seeking to curry favor with Tehran.

Jafarzadeh he says previous revelations like the regarded alleged uranium enriching plants at Natanz and a heavy water facility at Arak prove his information and intentions are legitimate.

August 26, 2005

US-Iran/
Dissident says Iran close to having long range cruise missile

   Washington (dpa) - Iran is close to mastering long range cruise missile technology by copying Ukrainian missiles illegally sold to Teheran in 2001, a leading Iranian dissident said Friday.

   The Kh-55 missiles can deliver nuclear warheads and have a range of 2,500 to 3,000 kilometres, leaving much of Europe in addition to Israel within range, said Alireza Jafarzadeh.

   Jafarzadeh, who revealed the existence of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility and other parts of Iran's nuclear programme which had been previously unknown to international inspectors, says he obtains information from Iran's opposition.

   "Put in combination with the nuclear weapons programme of the Iranian regime one can understand the seriousness of this problem," Jafarzadeh told reporters in Washington.

   The United States accuses Iran of using a civilian nuclear energy programme to develop weapons, charges Iran strongly denies.

dpa mm pr

Dissident: Tehran Has 4,000 Centrifuges

By WILLIAM J. KOLE,

Associated Press Writer

Iran has manufactured about 4,000 centrifuges capable of enriching uranium to weapons grade, an exiled Iranian dissident who helped uncover nearly two decades of covert nuclear activity in 2002 said Tuesday.

Alireza Jafarzadeh told The Associated Press the centrifuges — which he said are unknown to the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency — are ready to be installed at Iran's nuclear facility in Natanz.                        

Jafarzadeh, who runs Strategic Policy Consulting, a Washington-based think tank focusing on Iran and Iraq, said the information — which he described as "very recent" — came from sources within the Tehran regime who have proven accurate in the past.

None of Jafarzadeh's claims could be independently verified immediately.

The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, which was convening an emergency meeting on Iran later Tuesday, did not immediately comment on the centrifuge allegations. The agency previously had said it was aware of the existence of 164 centrifuges at Natanz, 300 miles south of Tehran.

Iran also did not immediately comment on the Jafarzadeh's claims.

Under an agreement with the IAEA, Iran had pledged to stop building centrifuges, which can be used to enrich uranium to levels high enough to fuel a nuclear weapon.

Centrifuges also can be used for the peaceful generation of nuclear energy, which Iran insists is its only intention. The United States contends the country is running a covert effort to produce nuclear weapons.

"These 4,000 centrifuge machines have not been declared to the IAEA, and the regime has kept the production of these machines hidden from the inspectors while the negotiations with the European Union have been going on over the past 21 months," Jafarzadeh said in a telephone interview.

Iran on Saturday rejected a package of EU incentives presented by envoys from Britain, France and Germany, and on Monday, it announced it had resumed uranium conversion activities at its nuclear facility at Isfahan.

Jafarzadeh said the centrifuges were manufactured in Isfahan and Tehran, and that construction of buildings, concrete foundations and other work needed to prepare the Natanz facility for centrifuge installation has continued in recent months.

The IAEA's 35-nation board of governors was meeting to assess Iran's latest nuclear activities, and diplomats said it could issue a formal warning to Tehran.

The board, however, appeared unlikely to report Iran to the U.N. Security Council, which has the authority to impose economic or political sanctions on the regime.

Jafarzadeh said Iran was making "extensive" use of front organizations or companies for the production and testing of centrifuge parts. He identified the companies as Pars Tarash, Kala Electric and Energy Novin, and said all had office space in the downtown Tehran building that houses Iran's Atomic Energy Organization.

Pars Tarash, which has been mentioned in IAEA reports, is using subcontractors to make some centrifuge components, Jafarzadeh alleged. He said Malek Ashtar University in Isfahan also allegedly was involved in producing centrifuge parts.

Those companies "don't know what they're building — they're just given specifications for some parts — but the Pars Tarash company knows what it's building: centrifuges," he said.

In 2002, Jafarzadeh — then a member of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, an exiled opposition group — disclosed information about two hidden nuclear sites that helped uncover nearly two decades of covert Iranian atomic activity and sparked present fears that Tehran wants to build a bomb.

The council is the political arm of the Mujahedeen Khalq, a group that Washington and the European Union list as a terrorist organization.

Jafarzadeh identified the top two engineers allegedly working on centrifuge parts as Morteza Behzad, who works for Iran's atomic agency and heads Pars Tarash, and Ali Karimi, a Defense Ministry engineer with experience in more advanced P2 centrifuges.

"This clearly shows that contrary to Iran's claim that it is transparent and cooperating with the IAEA, it hasn't stopped being deceitful, hasn't stopped lying and hiding its program," Jafarzadeh said by telephone from Washington, D.C.

In June 2004, diplomats told AP in Vienna that Iran had acknowledged inquiring about 4,000 magnets needed for uranium enrichment equipment with a European black-market supplier and had dangled the possibility of buying a "higher number." It was unclear whether the magnets were intended for use in the 4,000 centrifuges Jafarzadeh cited.

A month later, in July 2004, Iran confirmed it had resumed building centrifuges, although it said it had not restarted uranium enrichment.

Britain, France and Germany called Tuesday's emergency IAEA meeting after Tehran announced plans to resume conversion, the process preceding enrichment. Highly enriched uranium can be used to make weapons; uranium enriched to lower levels is used to produce electricity.

Unites Press International

June 17, 2005

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20050617-072413-3989r

Politics & Policies: Iran's elections

By Claude Salhani

UPI International Editor

Published 6/17/2005 9:33 AM

WASHINGTON, June 17 (UPI) -- President Bush's denouncing of Iran's electoral system a day before the Islamic Republic went to the polls to choose a new president was seen by Iranian opposition groups as a sign of encouragement and support.

Vowing that "America would support those seeking freedom," Bush called the Islamic Republic's electoral system "undemocratic."

"Today, Iran is ruled by men who suppress liberty at home and spread terror across the world," he said in a statement released by the White House. "Power is in the hands of an unelected few who have retained power through an electoral process that ignores the basic requirements of democracy."

"The June 17th presidential elections are sadly consistent with this oppressive record," added Bush.

Opponents of the regime in Tehran welcomed the president's comments.

"This is a rare recognition by any Western country that Iran's election process is neither free nor fair," said Alireza Jafarzadeh, an Iranian activist living in Washington who is president of Strategic Policy Consulting. "Rather it is designed to keep the ruthless clerics in power."

Jafarzadeh sees Bush's statement as having the following ramifications:

1. It offers the Iranian people a view that the United States is serious in recognizing their right to determine their own future.

2. Opposition groups in Iran will view Bush's statement as a signal to step up their efforts to unseat the regime of the clerics.

3. The American president's statement will be viewed by countries of the European Union as a warning that the United States is serious on Iran and is tightening its political screws on the regime of the mullahs.

4. It sends a signal to "rogue states" and "Tehran-sponsored terrorist groups" that the world is increasingly intolerant of their activities.

Jafarzadeh said this message is "particularly timely, because there were reports Thursday that Iran had lied to the International Atomic Energy Agency about its production of plutonium," a fissile material that can be used to build nuclear bombs.

As for the actual results of the presidential race, Jafarzadeh, and Iran's opposition, claim "it would make no difference who would actually win the presidential election in Iran," given that the country will remain under the rule of the mullahs.

In the running are seven candidates:

Seventy-year old Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the front-runner who claims he can "solve the country's problems." He is a Shiite Muslim cleric who served two previous presidential terms. Formerly known as a hard-liner, Rafsanjani now casts himself as a reformer. His hope is to mend relations with the West and even with the United States.

Other candidates are Ali Larijani, who was the head of Iranian State TV and Radio from 1994 to 2004. Before that, Larijani served as the minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance under Rafsanjani, taking up the post from current President Mohammad Khatami.

Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf is one of five candidates who previously held top Revolutionary Guards posts. Qalibaf, a former commander of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' Air Force, stepped down as the chief of the paramilitary police force, the State Security Forces, to run in the upcoming elections.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was until recently the mayor of Tehran. He is seen to be an ultra-conservative, having also been a top commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the regime's ideological army. Following the 1979 Islamic revolution, he became a member of the Office for Strengthening Unity. He belonged to the ultra-conservative faction of the OSU. According to other OSU officials, when the idea of storming the U.S. Embassy in Tehran was raised in the OSU central committee by Mahmoud Mirdamadi and Abbas Abdi, who later became leading figures in Khatami's faction, Ahmadinejad suggested storming the Soviet embassy at the same time.

Hojatoleslam Mehdi Mahdavi-Karroubi, a mid-ranking cleric, member of the State Expediency Council and an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Karroubi was Majlis (parliament) Speaker from 1989 to 1992. He took up the same post again from 2000 to 2004, replacing a leading conservative, Ali Akbar Nateq Nuri, who was appointed an adviser to Khamenei.

Mohsen Mehralizade, perhaps the most obscure candidate in the race, is a vice president in the present administration and serves as the head of the National Sports Organization.

And Mostafa Moin, who served as chancellor of Shiraz University from 1981 to 1982 and has been a member of the Supreme Cultural Revolution Council since 1983. Moin was a deputy in the Majlis from 1982 to 1984, and again from 1988 to 1989. He served as the Culture and Higher Education minister from 1989 to 1993 and served as Higher Education minister from 1997 to 2003. Students and professors in Shiraz University in the early 1980s have signed a petition against Moin, saying that as chancellor, he actively purged dissidents and all those who did not conform to the dominant Islamic fundamentalist ideology. His candidacy is supported by the Islamic Iran Participation Front.

Bush lamented the fact that more than 1,000 presidential candidates were not allowed to run and criticized the regime for shutting down "independent newspapers and Web sites."

"Across the Middle East, hopeful change is taking place," said Bush. "People are claiming their liberty. And as a tide of freedom sweeps this region, it will also come eventually to Iran."

Bush accused Tehran's regime of jailing "those who dare to challenge the corrupt system."

"America believes in the independence and territorial integrity of Iran," Bush said. "America believes in the right of the Iranian people to make their own decisions and determine their own future. America believes that freedom is the birthright and deep desire of every human soul. And to the Iranian people, I say: As you stand for your own liberty, the people of America stand with you."

About 47 million of Iran's 68 million people -- all Iranians over the age of 15 -- are eligible to vote. Turnout in the 2001 presidential election was close to 67 percent.

"The outcome of Iran's presidential race will undoubtedly be important for the legitimacy of the country's current clerical regime, now embroiled in a thorny diplomatic dispute with the United States and Europe over its nuclear program," writes Ilan Berman in the June 16 issue of Foreign Policy Alert, in an article titled "Reading Iran's Elections Right."

"Yet, for all of its fanfare, the Iranian presidential election is just a sideshow," says Berman. "No matter their political affiliation, all of the approved candidates have passed muster with the regime's vetting authority for political appointments, known as the Guardian Council."

This, explains Berman, "means that irrespective of who wins the Iranian presidency, the Islamic Republic will not roll back its efforts to acquire a nuclear capability. Nor will it change any of the other troubling policies (such as sponsorship of terrorism and opposition to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process) that characterize its core ideology. In the end, if there is a change in Iranian policies, it will be one of style, not substance."

--

(Comments may be sent to Claude@upi.com.)

Copyright © 2001-2005 United Press International